Back when I bought some, the forecasts for the boohoo (LSE: BOO) share price were strong.
It turns out they were badly wrong. But I think it was mostly due to problems we really couldn’t see at the time. At least, I didn’t see them.
The experts
Having been stung once, why care about what the so-called experts think now? I could say their guess is as good as mine. And that would probably be true.
But also we’re looking at a company making a loss, with the success of its turnaround plans very much up in the air. And in cases like this, it surely pays to listen to all opinions before making any decision about buying.
Oh, or selling, of course. I could probably get myself a new pair of socks with the proceeds if I sell now.
Hello, Mike
But what about the Mike Ashley and Frasers Group drama? Frasers currently holds a 27% stake in boohoo. And the firm posted an open letter to the boohoo board on 24 October.
It’s summed up by: “Frasers is requisitioning a general meeting of boohoo to appoint Mr. Mike Ashley as a director and CEO of boohoo and Mr. Mike Lennon as a director of boohoo, to take effect without delay. Frasers firmly believes that these appointments are in the best interests of boohoo, its shareholders and its stakeholders”.
The boohoo board doesn’t seem too keen on the idea. Ashley can be a divisive figure. But he has a decent track record of saving (some) troubled companies.
If he gets his way, forecasts might all need to be rewritten. But I think it’s worth taking a new look at them to help get a feel for the lie of the land.
No profits
The big red flag is a lack of profit for the next few years. Analysts still show negative earnings per share (EPS) as far out as 2027. The losses look set to reduce by then. But in a time when I’d say competition is only likely to intensify, I’m not thrilled.
As for the share price, there’s an average target of 32.5p out there. And the range goes from 18.5p to 70p.
With boohoo shares trading at 29p at the time of writing, that upper bound suggests an attractive 140% gain. But is it enough to offset the risk of a 36% loss if the most bearish forecast is right?
Either way, the wide range of opinions reinforces my thought that the experts really don’t have much more clue than me.
What to do
Despite my lack of excitement, I do see some intriguing possibilities. Is it worth buying with the idea that the current management can drag boohoo back from the brink? If Ashley sees long-term value in the company, that’s a plus.
Or buy in the hope that Ashley will take the reins and steer the company to success? I really don’t know.
But I’ve decided one thing. There’s too much entertainment value for me to sell my meagre stake right now. Besides, I have enough socks.
This post was originally published on Motley Fool
