The S&P 500 just cleared a major hurdle in its post-tariff rally. The time it took may or may not be a bearish sign.

A stock-market relief rally lifted the S&P 500

SPX to a Monday close above its 200-day moving average — a level widely seen as a proxy for its long-term trend — for the first time in more than 30 trading sessions.

History suggests that fears of a prolonged dip below that closely watched level, which is often seen as a sign of big trouble for the market, may be misplaced.