Ever since the Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR.) share price took off last year, I’ve been waiting for it to fall back and give me a cheaper buying opportunity.
But trying to time things like that can be a mug’s game, and those who bought in have mostly done very well. Still, the shares have fallen 10% since their 52-week high in June.
What next?
This might just be a pause ahead of first-half results, due on 1 August. What happens when we see the figures could drive Rolls-Royce shares up further. If things are going in accordance with previous bullish guidance, that is.
But if there’s a miss? Well, there’s a chance that might send the shares further down into buying territory.
One thing’s for sure, there are plenty of people watching. Investing platform interactive investor says Rolls was its third most popular stock bought in June.
Those buyers will be expecting good things, for sure. But what might those things be?
Rolls-Royce outlook
At FY 2023 results time, CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç was super enthusiastic. He spoke of “unlocking our full potential as a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing Rolls-Royce.”
The board gave us guidance of £1.7bn-£2.0bn for 2024 operating profit, and put free cash flow at £1.7bn-£1.9bn.
With 2023 underlying operating profit at £1.6bn, we’re looking at a rise of between 6% and 25%, and that’s quite a range. I could see investors disappointed at just 6% growth, even if it’s still within guidance.
The free cash flow guidance suggests a rise of around 30-45% over 2023’s £1.3bn. That would be impressive, but it’s still a fairly wide range.
Uncertainty
At such an early stage, there’s always going to be uncertainty in guidance figures like these.
But you know what I think will be in the minds of a lot of Rolls-Royce shareholders? I reckon they’ll be expecting the top end of the range. They’ll want at least 25% more operating profit, and won’t be happy with just a 6% rise.
In May’s AGM trading update on 23 May, the CEO did speak of “further confidence in our guidance for 2024“. And that will surely cement the optimism.
But do you know what I prefer? I’d rather see a company boss who underpromises and overdelivers. That way, investors are less likely to become too optimistic. And less disappointed if results turn out good but not spectacular.
H1 results
What do I expect from the upcoming H1 update? Considering how recent the AGM update was, I suspect Rolls will remain bullish about its guidance. And we might not get the big buying dip I’m hoping for.
But I’m going to hold off, as I still think Rolls could slump if it only hits the bottom end of those FY expectations.
I’m too risk-averse to buy Rolls-Royce, at least until it doesn’t make the list of most-bought stocks on popular investing platforms.
This post was originally published on Motley Fool
