Semiconductors are a runaway train — up 17 of the past 18 sessions — and options traders are buying increasingly expensive call options to chase the rally higher.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracking the sector is up more than 30% this month after a 5% pop Friday, and implied volatility is rising alongside the price, meaning it’s getting more expensive to trade options around the group.
The latest catalyst was Intel earnings overnight, which sent shares of the stock up 23%, a rally that almost triples the expected move implied by the options market on Thursday. Intel’s market value suprassed $400 billion for the first time since the Dotcom Bubble in 2000. Advanced Micro Devices, one of Intel’s longtime competitors, surged in unison, adding 15%.
Options signals look notably bullish in memory stocks like Micron and Sandisk, which posted enormous gains over the past year due to demand from AI data centers. Calls outnumber puts near 2:1 in those stocks, and total call premiums paid in those stocks are at least four times bigger than in puts.
One notable exception is the biggest of the group – Nvidia. Implied vol in Jensen Huang’s AI leader is lower than in the SMH ETF, probably because the stock has been much slower moving, sitting about $3 below all-time highs made in October.
At least one sizable trader took advantage of those relatively cheaper options, buying 7,500 $230-strike calls expiring May 15 – a $413,000 transaction betting on a 13% ramp from here. Call volumes in NVDA are about three times that of puts. The company is set to report earnings on May 20.
This post was originally published on CNBC Markets
