Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks futures rise as historical bullish pre-Thanksgiving week trading begins

Need to know: Here’s why Santa may skip Wall Street this year

What’s driving the markets?

Trading may thin out this week as investors head off for Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day holiday. Markets will close that day and trade an abbreviated session on Friday. But according to Bespoke Investment Group, it may be worth traders sticking around as Thanksgiving week has resulted in a modest gain for stocks dating back to 1945.

Read: Falling real yields are a key to the stock-market rally: What investors need to know

“Based on the historical data…there is a two-thirds chance that we will see the US stocks up on the day before and after Thanksgiving,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, in a note to clients.

While the National Retail Federation is predicting November and December holiday sales will rise 8.5% to 10% this year to around $850 billion, part of that comes from the higher cost of goods. “But the good news is, people still have money to spend, even though they get less goods and services in exchange of what’s spent,” Ozkardeshkaya said.

On the data front, investors will get existing home sales at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, ahead of a massive data dump coming Wednesday, and which will include a revision to third-quarter gross domestic product, durable goods and personal income.

Another big focus this week is an expected announcement of President Joe Biden’s nomination to head the Federal Reserve. Some expect Tuesday will be the day as Biden is scheduled to give a speech to the American people on the economy and a fight against inflation. His choice is believed to be between current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Fed Gov. Lael Brainard.

Read: Powell or Brainard? Biden expected to make Fed decision this week

Some cited optimism to hopes for China policy easing, after the People’s Bank of China reportedly cut several phrases about policy restraint in a report.

Rising COVID cases and increased restrictions in Europe spooked markets on Friday, notably oil, that tumbled to a seven-week low, may mean investors start factoring in another stay-at-home winter. “In this sense, Meta
FB,
+1.95%
closed near 2% up on Friday, and the stock price is already up by around 15% since the October dip,” the analyst said.

European stocks were modestly higher as Austria kicked off its 10-day national lockdown, and after weekend protests against increasing restrictions elsewhere for the unvaccinated turned violent in Brussels and The Netherlands.

Staying on the geopolitical front, Russian stocks tumbled amid U.S. and Europe concerns about a Russia troop buildup on the Ukraine border. Citing sources, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. has shared intelligence with European allies that shows plans for an invasion into Ukraine, should President Vladimir Putin decide to go that route.

What companies are in focus?

• Shares of Vonage Holdings Corp.
  VG,
  -2.09%
  surged 24% after Swedish telecom equipment maker Ericsson
  ERIC,
  -0.36%

  ERIC.B,
  -3.65%
  announced a $6.2 billion deal to buy the U.S.-based global cloud-communications provider.

How are other assets trading?

• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note 
  TMUBMUSD10Y,
  1.578%
  rose 5 basis points to 1.5831%. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions.

• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index 
  DXY,
  +0.10%,
   a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.1%.

• Gold futures
  GC00,
  -0.49%
  fell 0.6% to $1,841.10 an ounce.

• The Stoxx Europe 600 
  SXXP,
  -0.02%
  turned flat , while London’s FTSE 100 
  UKX,
  +0.03%
  was also unchanged.

• In Asia, the Shanghai Composite
  SHCOMP,
  +0.61%
   rose 0.6%, while the Hang Seng Index 
  HSI,
  -0.39%
   declined 0.4% in Hong Kong, and China’s CSI 300 
  000300,
  +0.46%
   rose 0.4%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK finished flat.